The Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) heads to Sonoma Raceway for its first street race of this 2019 season. In an additional twist, this will be the first time since 1997 the series races around the full 2.52-mile layout, which comprises the”Carousel” segment, instead of the 1.99 mile design used the past two decades.
Sonoma is a road course, much slower than its counterpart Watkins Glen, on the Cup schedule.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma
Read today When betting this race, an important note: Do not overvalue overall road course performance. All of my best performing models show that road course performance isn’t a significant element that is predictive.
Rather, monitor record at Sonoma far outweighs performance across all the road courses (including the Charlotte Roval which was run for the first time in last season’s playoffs). Other top factors in my models include both long-run and short rate in clinic, and functionality across all races.
One other major factor which isn’t predictive of completing position or winning: starting position. Since 2005, eight of the 14 winners have started 10th or worse, including two motorists winning despite beginning from the 30s.
On the reverse side, just two drivers have won from the front row (both starting second), and just four drivers starting within the top five have won. If books overreact to qualifying, this can be an opportunity to jump some value from elite drivers staring mid-pack, or fade subpar Sonoma drivers beginning toward the front.
Bearing that in mind, let us look at the very best futures stakes for Sunday’s race, for example some very surprising odds for the driver who sits atop my version.
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